Calorie & Weight Trend Calibrator
Turn daily weigh-ins and average calorie intake into a smoothed progress check. Estimate an observed maintenance range and see whether the recent trend is moving toward your goal.
Published by Reeve Editorial Team · Methods and sources updated
Replace the example with your weigh-ins. Use YYYY-MM-DD weight to preserve missing days, or one weight per line for consecutive days.
Use 14–28 consistent measurements when possible. A first estimate needs at least seven entries. The average calorie input should cover the whole date interval.
Fitted weekly trend
-0.51 kg
14 weigh-ins over 13 days. All dates contribute to the trend.
Observed maintenance estimate
2,475–2,875
kcal/day · an illustrative ±200 kcal margin, not a statistical confidence interval.
Blue: fitted trend · Gray: weigh-ins
View values as a table
| Date | Weight (kg) |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 72.40 |
| 2026-09-02 | 72.20 |
| 2026-09-03 | 72.50 |
| 2026-09-04 | 72.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | 72.10 |
| 2026-09-06 | 71.90 |
| 2026-09-07 | 72.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | 71.80 |
| 2026-09-09 | 71.90 |
| 2026-09-10 | 71.60 |
| 2026-09-11 | 71.70 |
| 2026-09-12 | 71.50 |
| 2026-09-13 | 71.60 |
| 2026-09-14 | 71.40 |
If this recent pace continued
5.3–8.3 weeks
2026-10-21 to 2026-11-11, measured from the last weigh-in. A scenario, not a predicted outcome.
Inputs stay in this tab. Saving keeps a copy on this device until you reset or clear it.
Water, digestion, logging error, and changing activity affect short-term weight. The goal range varies this recent pace; it does not model metabolic adaptation. For adults outside pregnancy, breastfeeding, and eating-disorder recovery.
How this tool works
The tool fits a least-squares line through all valid weights using their actual dates. Pasted date-and-weight rows preserve missing days; weight-only rows are treated as consecutive dates ending at the selected last weigh-in date. Duplicate or invalid entries must be corrected before calculation.
Observed maintenance is average calorie intake minus the fitted daily weight change multiplied by 7,700 kcal/kg, rounded to 25 kcal. The displayed ±200 kcal margin is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval. Water, logging error, and other short-term changes can overwhelm this energy-balance approximation.
The timeline extends the unrounded fitted rate from the last weigh-in only when it moves toward the goal. The range is 80% to 125% of the central time estimate, illustrating sensitivity without modelling metabolic adaptation. It is not a promised date or a validated confidence interval.
Sources
Frequently asked questions
How many weigh-ins should I use?
Use at least 14–28 morning measurements collected under similar conditions. More data generally makes water-related noise less influential.
Is observed maintenance more accurate than a TDEE equation?
It can add useful personal context, but it depends on complete intake logging and a long enough weight trend. Use it alongside—not as a replacement for—professional guidance or validated clinical models.
Why does the tool show a range instead of one goal date?
Body weight does not change at a constant rate. A date range better reflects the uncertainty in both the recent trend and future behavior.